Berlin, 08/01/2025: In a guest article in Cicero magazine two weeks ago, Stefan Liebing and Theodore Murphy outline their views on the potential impact of Donald Trump’s re-election on Europe’s energy security, particularly with regard to its dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US. The authors warn that Trump’s second term could bring geopolitical risks for Europe, as he has already shown in the past to use economic leverage against allies.
The EU has relied heavily on LNG imports from the US in recent years, especially after the drastic decline in Russian gas supplies. The share of LNG in the European gas supply has increased significantly, with the USA now supplying half of the liquefied natural gas required in Europe. According to Liebing and Murphy, however, this development, which has been celebrated as a success, has created a new dependency: Dependence on the US has replaced dependence on Russia, which makes Europe vulnerable, they say.
With Trump’s re-election, these risks could increase. Trump has repeatedly shown that he is prepared to use economic policy instruments – such as trade tariffs or export restrictions – aggressively to push through US interests. The authors point to initial steps that were already evident under President Biden, for example when a ban on new LNG export facilities was imposed in January 2024. In addition, a geopolitical criterion was introduced that could restrict the export of LNG to countries that are not in line with US interests. Under Trump, this could lead to tighter controls on LNG exports, putting Europe in a precarious position.
Liebing and Murphy argue that Europe urgently needs to diversify its gas suppliers. Africa in particular offers great potential for supplying LNG to Europe. African countries such as Senegal could export significant quantities of liquefied natural gas, but in the past Europe has not succeeded in concluding long-term purchase agreements with these countries. A prominent example is Germany’s failed attempt to reach an LNG agreement with Senegal during the 2022 energy crisis.
The authors therefore suggest that Europe should not only diversify its LNG sources, but also invest in the production and import of green hydrogen. Africa could play an important role in the production of hydrogen from renewable energy, which in the long term would represent a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels such as LNG. However, the EU must remove regulatory barriers and create financial incentives to accelerate the transition to green hydrogen.
Finally, Liebing and Murphy call for more decisive action by the EU and national governments to ensure Europe’s energy security. It is essential to reduce stubborn dependencies and strengthen long-term energy partnerships, especially with African countries. This could not only improve energy security, but also create the basis for closer cooperation in the transition to renewable energy and green hydrogen.